The reason is simple: Las Vegas has a captive audience of over 100,000 people in town for the race. More racing fans means more volume; more props mean more ways for the book to ensure a profit for the weekend, the same strategy employed for the Super Bowl.
If the Westgate has to pay out lots of Jeff Gordon-to-win bets at 7-to-1 odds, the book’s back-up plan – props – will help negate the loss. In the Super Bowl, many bettors cashed on 13-to-5 Patriots-to-OVER parlays, and if parlays were the only betting option, Las Vegas books would have shown a hefty loss. But between the Super Bowl props and futures, the books showed a $3.3 million profit.
The volume wagered on Las Vegas’ NASCAR Sprint Cup race will be only a fraction of what was written for the Super Bowl ($116 million), but the same bookmaking concept applies.
MORE: Driver-by-driver odds breakdown | Qualifying odds posted
Let’s take a look at all the wonderful props and offer a few leans we think show good value. KOBALT 400 MATCHUPS KEVIN HARVICK -155 JIMMIE JOHNSON +135 The Linemakers’ lean: Pretty hard to not take four-time LVMS winner Johnson at plus-money against a driver who has never won here. Harvick will be scary fast in practices just like last week, but he was fast in Vegas testing last year as well and finished 41st. KEVIN HARVICK -165 JEFF GORDON +145The Linemakers’ lean: If you like Gordon to win, you might as well play the matchup as well. Gordon can’t start the season with three straight poor finishes in his final season, can he? KEVIN HARVICK -200 BRAD KESELOWSKI +175 JIMMIE JOHNSON -130 JEFF GORDON +110 JIMMIE JOHNSON -165 BRAD KESELOWSKI +145 JEFF GORDON -155 BRAD KESELOWSKI +135 DALE EARNHARDT JR -110 MATT KENSETH -110The Linemakers’ take: Good matchup with two drivers who should be battling for position within the top five all race. DALE EARNHARDT JR -110 JOEY LOGANO -110The Linemakers’ lean: Junior has been runner-up three times at LVMS, a track record, but has also failed to win in 15 starts, which is also the most at LVMS. Logano is scary so far, but Junior should finish better. DALE EARNHARDT JR +175 KEVIN HARVICK -200The Linemakers’ lean: Junior ran out of fuel while leading on the last lap last season; Harvick had the best car on most 1.5-mile tracks last season, but had plenty of issues that kept him from winning on one until the Chase. The big plus-money is the draw here. MATT KENSETH -110 JOEY LOGANO -110 MATT KENSETH -130 CARL EDWARDS +110 DALE EARNHARDT JR -130 CARL EDWARDS +110 JEFF GORDON -155 DALE EARNHARDT JR +135 JEFF GORDON -155 MATT KENSETH +135 BRAD KESELOWSKI -110 JOEY LOGANO -110 BRAD KESELOWSKI -110 CARL EDWARDS -110 CARL EDWARDS -155 KASEY KAHNE +135 The Linemakers’ lean: Kahne has two second-places finishes at LVMS, loves 1.5-mile tracks and drives for Hendrick Motorsports. Edwards has two LVMS wins, but would be a surprise to win Sunday. A Kahne win wouldn’t surprise. KASEY KAHNE -110 DENNY HAMLIN -110The Linemakers’ lean: Even matchup with a slight edge to Kahne, even though Hamlin looked very good at Atlanta last week before wrecking. CARL EDWARDS -155 DENNY HAMLIN +135 KASEY KAHNE +145 JOEY LOGANO -165 DENNY HAMLIN +145 MATT KENSETH -165 RYAN NEWMAN -125 KYLE LARSON +105 RYAN NEWMAN -130 CLINT BOWYER +110The Linemakers’ lean: The Waltrip and Gibbs Toyotas all look improved from 2014 on these type of tracks. Newman has finished seventh or better in three of his past four LVMS starts. KYLE LARSON -125 CLINT BOWYER +105The Linemakers’ lean: Can you trust Larson on race day? CLINT BOWYER -110 MARTIN TRUEX JR -110The Linemakers’ lean: Has Truex Jr. just been lucky in the first two races to sit fifth in points, or is the single-car team from Denver really this good? Let’s see one more strong outing before jumping on his bandwagon. MARTIN TRUEX JR -125 JAMIE McMURRAY +105 JAMIE McMURRAY -125 DAVID RAGAN +105The Linemakers’ lean: Is Ragan finally comfortable in Kyle Busch’s seat? He should be closer to the performance of his Gibbs teammates, and plus-money against a big question mark in McMurray make him worth playing. DAVID RAGAN +115 MARTIN TRUEX JR -135 DAVID RAGAN -125 TONY STEWART +105 TONY STEWART -110 PAUL MENARD -110 TONY STEWART -140 BRIAN VICKERS +120The Linemakers’ lean: Man, what’s happened to Stewart? The 2012 Vegas winner looked awful at Atlanta. Vickers makes his 2015 debut, but his No. 55 MWR Toyota finished eighth at Atlanta with first-time starter Brett Moffitt. Until Stewart shows something, he’s a bet-against every race, especially when the driver he’s matched up against is getting plus-money. PAUL MENARD -140 BRIAN VICKERS +120 PAUL MENARD -140 AUSTIN DILLON +120 CASEY MEARS +105 DANICA PATRICK -125The Linemakers’ lean: Is Truex Jr. the best story of the young season, or is it Mears who is sixth in points? Mears showed speed last week at Atlanta and is on the upswing. KOBALT 400 FINISH POSITIONS
FINISH BY: KEVIN HARVICK OVER 5.5 +100 UNDER 5.5 -120The Linemakers’ take: Rough number to mess around with.FINISH BY: JIMMIE JOHNSON OVER 6.5 EVEN UNDER 6.5 -120The Linemakers’ lean: Sixth or better in eight of his 13 LVMS starts, including the past three.FINISH BY: JEFF GORDON OVER 6.5 -120 UNDER 6.5 EVENFINISH BY: DALE EARNHARDT JR OVER 7.5 -120 UNDER 7.5 EVENThe Linemakers’ lean: He’s been seventh or better the past two LVMS races.FINISH BY: MATT KENSETH OVER 7.5 -120 UNDER 7.5 EVENFINISH BY: BRAD KESELOWSKI OVER 7.5 -120 UNDER 7.5 EVENThe Linemakers’ lean: He won in Vegas last year, but looked nowhere near as good as Penske teammate Logano in practices and during the race at Atlanta last week.FINISH BY: JOEY LOGANO OVER 7.5 -120 UNDER 7.5 EVENFINISH BY: CARL EDWARDS OVER 8.5 EVEN UNDER 8.5 -120FINISH BY: KASEY KAHNE OVER 9.5 -120 UNDER 9.5 EVENFINISH BY: DENNY HAMLIN OVER 9.5 -120 UNDER 9.5 EVENFINISH BY: RYAN NEWMAN OVER 12.5 -110 UNDER 12.5 -110FINISH BY: KYLE LARSON OVER 13.5 -110 UNDER 13.5 -110FINISH BY: CLINT BOWYER OVER 14.5 -110 UNDER 14.5 -110FINISH BY: MARTIN TRUEX JR OVER 14.5 -110 UNDER 14.5 -110FINISH BY: TONY STEWART OVER 16.5 -110 UNDER 16.5 -110The Linemakers’ lean: Things don’t look so good for Stewart here. Until he shows otherwise, keep betting against him.FINISH BY: AUSTIN DILLON OVER 17.5 -110 UNDER 17.5 -110FINISH BY: GREG BIFFLE OVER 20.5 -120 UNDER 20.5 EVENFINISH BY: DANICA PATRICK OVER 22.5 -110 UNDER 22.5 -110
KOBALT 400 RACE PROPOSITIONS
WINNING CAR NUMBER WILL BE: 1-19 +115 20-98 -135The Linemakers’ lean: The second option offers a ton of the top candidates to win, like Logano, Gordon, Johnson and Earnhardt.WINNING CAR NUMBER WILL BE: ODD +500 EVEN -700The Linemakers’ lean: We won’t suggest laying -700, but only Hamlin and Edwards have a legitimate shot of beating you if you do.TOTAL CAUTIONS: OVER 6.5 +110 UNDER 6.5 -130 **(At least 267 laps must be completed for action)The Linemakers’ lean: There were only four cautions at LVMS in 2014, but we should expect a few more this year because of the new rules package, as the cars now come ripping into the corners faster than last year. Because the drivers have had only one race to get comfortable with the new package, and 10 cautions happened in that race at Atlanta, expect quite a few to have some issues.TOTAL CARS ON LEAD LAP: OVER 19.5 -110 UNDER 19.5 -110 **(At least 267 laps must be completed for action)TOTAL NUMBER OF DIFFERENT DRIVERS TO LEAD AT LEAST 1 LAP: OVER 9.5 -130 UNDER 9.5 +110 **(At least 267 laps must be completed for action)WINNING MANUFACTURER: CHEVY -200 FORD +400 TOYOTA +300The Linemakers’ lean: Hard to go against Chevy here, if you’re looking elsewhere, the better value is to bet Logano to win if you like Ford; or Hamlin, Kenseth and Edwards separately if you like Toyota.KOBALT 400 GROUP MATCHUPS These aren’t recommended for straight bets because of the built in juice, bur since parlays are allowed, you can spend a little to win a lot if correct on two or three of the groups.GROUP 1 KEVIN HARVICK +180 JIMMIE JOHNSON +240 JEFF GORDON +250 DALE EARNHARDT JR +275The Linemakers’ take: Good luck on this one.GROUP 2 MATT KENSETH +230 BRAD KESELOWSKI +230 JOEY LOGANO +230 CARL EDWARDS +240GROUP 3 KASEY KAHNE +195 DENNY HAMLIN +195 RYAN NEWMAN +275 KYLE LARSON +285GROUP 4 CLINT BOWYER +220 MARTIN TRUEX JR +220 JAMIE McMURRAY +240 DAVID RAGAN +255GROUP 5 TONY STEWART +220 PAUL MENARD +220 BRIAN VICKERS +245 AUSTIN DILLON +250The Linemakers’ lean: VickersGROUP 6 REGAN SMITH +230 RYAN BLANEY +230 GREG BIFFLE +235 AJ ALLMENDINGER +235The Linemakers’ lean: AllmendingerGROUP 7 ARIC ALMIROLA +195 CASEY MEARS +250 DANICA PATRICK +235 RICKY STENHOUSE JR +260GROUP 8 TREVOR BAYNE +225 SAM HORNISH JR +225 TY DILLON +225 JUSTIN ALLGAIER +255The Linemakers’ lean: Hornish +225Group betting rules: All drivers in group must start for action; Best finish in group wins; parlays allowed in Groups 1 thru 8
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